Will Mayor Gatsas Have Coattails?

If you enjoy this posting, you might want to catch this week’s Ed Mosca Show on MCAM23 in Manchester (Thursday 9:30 p.m. and Sunday at noon and available online at mcam.org).  Steve Vaillancourt has been invited on to discuss the election results and promises to have more detailed numbers than he can provide here and now.

 Ted Gatsas–5387–46.1 percent

Mark Roy–3364–28.8 percent

Bobby Stephen–2545–21.8 percent

Glenn Ouellette–201–1.7 percent

Richard Komi–191–1.6 percent

Make no mistake about it.

Ted Gatsas will be the next mayor of Manchester.  With the November election shaping up as a classic 60-40 race, the salient question this day after the primary is not how much Gatsas will win by, but will it be by enough to carry other like-minded candidates into office to help him govern?

It’s more than a moot point.  When Frank Guinta was re-elected two years ago, his total was less than 55 percent (a surprise to me) and his lack of coattails left Republicans with only two seats on the 14-member aldermanic board (Gatsas in Ward 2, Garrity in Ward 9 with independent Real Pinard from Ward 6 often siding with Guinta).

To govern effectively, a mayor must have at least enough supporters to sustain a veto.  In Mancheter, that would be five of the 14 aldermen.  Since the School Board operates on a different basis with the mayor having a single vote like any other member, Gatsas would need seven school board members on his “team”.

So the numbers to watch come November are 60-5-7.  If Gatsas can get above the 60 percent mark, he should be able to carry five Republican Aldermen and seven School Committee members with him. 

First things first.  Although overconfidence is never a good thing (and something team Gatsas is likely to avoid), it would take a spinmeister beyond the skills of the Raybo-KathytheS tandem to see this as anything other than a Gatsas win.  It’ll be amusing to see how they’ll try to spin it as if Roy has a chance.

I suppose they could point out that, like predicted in a column here a few weeks ago, Gatsas failed to reach 50 percent in the primary (he wound up with 46.1 percent), and that would be significant if we could see voters from the other candidates coalescing around second place finisher Roy.

However, clearly Gatsas was philosophically in the middle of the three candidates in the primary with Roy way to his left as a classic big tax and spender and Bobby Stephen (despite being a Democrat–in name only) way to his right as a champion of holding the line on taxes and a proponent of the tax cap.

Rather than look at the primary vote as 54 percent against Gatsas, we need to take Roy’s 29  percent (then throw in a  paltry three percent  for Komi and Ouellette combined, again as predicted here and nowhere else), to see that the anti-tax and spend voters (and pro tax cap vote) prevailed by a two to one margin.  Conceivably, Gatsas could hit 65 percent come November, but the tendency for things to close will probably knock it back to the 60 percent ragne.

Most of the Stephen voters, drawn by his anti-tax and spend appeal, will certainly never gravitate to Roy.  Even if Gatsas capture were to only 50 percent of them, he’ll come close to 60 percent in November, but he should take at least two out of three Stephen votes.

The other factor to consider, of course, is the people who didn’t vote in the primary but will be there come November, perhaps twice the 12,000 who voted in the primary, likely in the 21,000 range.

It’ll take a few days to get a firm hand on the percentage of Democratic vs. Republican and Undeclared voters in the primary, but history tells us that Republicans turn out in lesser numbers in primaries.  Conversely, Democrats enjoy less, not more, of a percentage advantage come November.  At least one careful poll watcher told me that seemed to be the case again yesterday, more Democrats voting.

That means that far from gaining “new” voters come November, Roy could actually lose out; Gatsas should get yet another boost.  Worst case scenario, consider it neutral.

There’s also the matter of the tax cap which Roy and his fellow tax and spend aldermen were able to keep off the ballot last fall (for fear of driving turnout up and Obama numbers down).

Be careful what you wish for!

Unless their desperate effort to deny the will of the people succeeds (Roy and his Dems are going back to court to try to strike the cap down yet again), it’ll be there for voters come November, and that should drive up  turnout, again to Roy’s disadvantage.

As I said, Ted Gatsas will be mayor; it’s merely a question of coattails.

Going into each individual Manchester ward would be possible but probably too arcane an exercise for this space, so let’s simply.  Out of sheer conicidence, it’s the even numbered wards to watch; in the races for Aldermen, the places where Republicans must plumb for gains are wards 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 (to a small extent) and 12.

Keith Hirshmann, who always seems to win or lose by a small margin in Ward 12, could be critical, and Gatsas needs to spend time and effort helping carry Hirschmann across the finish line.

Senator/Alderman Betsi Devries, based on yesterday’s numbers, could be vulnerable in Ward 8 which has become probably the most Republican ward in the city.  Will Ward 8 voters remember DeVries’s oppisition to the spending cap?  Will they forgive her for appointing an incompetent to the School Board seat when the popular Doug Kruse left?    Devries will face a fellow Democrat Chris Pariseau-Telge, but one far more likely to help Gatsas govern.  Telge finished a strong second Tuesday and if you combine the hundred or so votes for Webb (the third place finisher), Telge is only a hundred votes behind, and unlike the race for mayor, “new” voters are much more likely to go to the challenger.

While Phil Greazzo probably can’t upset George Smith in Ward 10, his primary numbers are encouraging.

In Ward 6, Will Infantine will need to survive slings and arrows (AKA Democrat lies) to replace Pinard to help Gatsas. 

An O’Sullivan win in Ward 2 would be helpful but Mayor Gatsas could probably get along with an Alderman Ludwig in the current Gatsas seat.  The former Parks Commissioner outpolled O’Sullivan 408-398 Tuesday.  State Rep Rob Thompson received a pathetic 108 votes.  He bragged to me all winter that he planned to run for the seat even if Gatsas had run for Alderman again.  Here, watch what happens to the 374 votes for Elise Annunxiata.

That brings us to Ward 4, and I’ve saved the best for last.  This was the only ward Guinta failed to carry two years ago, and ironically, Leo Pepino lost by about the same margin Guinta did, 60 votes.  If Guinta wins big here, Pepino could well oust the alderman who also happens to be named Roy.  In fact, my sources say that Ald Roy has already contributed to the Gatsas campaign and is lining up against mayoral candidate Roy.  Don’t by it Ted; Leo Pepino will be your best supporter on the board.

I refrain from looking at school board races since I am a candidate in Ward 8 agasinst the incompetent Betsi installed there for fear that he would run against her for Alderman if she didn’t.  Again, it’s the case of be careful what you wish for.  Devries should have named Pariseau-Telge to the school board; she didn’t; and now Telge could upset the Sen/Ald.

When people ask if I was surprised by the primary results, I have to say a little.  I though Stephen would do better, but it seems that even had the turnout been higher, he wouldn’t have caught Roy.  That says something about the tax and spend base of the Democrat party; and I fear Stephen’s age might have been a factor.

Whatever the reason, the results could not have been better for Gatsas and Republicans.  Had Roy lost, his voters would have drifted toward Stephen, but Stephen voters are not likely to drift to Roy.

Congratulations Mayor Gatasas.  If he wants supporters on the aldermanic and school committees, he’ll need to work for it in the next six weeks.  I’m guessing he does and will.