The Million Dollar In-State Ceiling & Self-Funding Candidates
September 27, 2009As Federal candidates scramble for the Sept 30 fundraising deadline, Rs and Ds have traded criticism about fundraisers held in Washington DC. So how much can a NH candidate raise from in-state donors?
The answer is about $1 million – no where near enough to run a winning senate campaign in NH. The 2008 Sununu-Shaheen senate race provides an indication. Both candidates raised more than $8 million for the campaign (Sununu raised $8,879,307 for the six-year cycle, and Shaheen raised $8,342,400). Of that, only about $1 million came from itemized contributions of $200 or more from in-state donors ($1,095,811 for Sununu, and $924,507 for Shaheen). (Info from opensecrets.org)
But what if you are a potential self-funding candidate, as three of the five Republicans looking at the Senate race are expected to be? They can watch Kelly and Ovide (or House candidates for that matter) bust their butts to raise money, knowing that they can only reasonably hope to raise something less than $1 million in-state for all the time and effort. As for the Washington DC money, being the “Washington establishment candidate” may block other candidates from raising significant money out of state – while the existence of at least three credible candidates may prevent even the establishment choice from raising as much as she/he might.
All of which has to make a potential candidate who knows he/she can write a check for $1 million, $2 million, $5 million or more feel pretty good.
Matt Suermann
Sep 27, 2009
Nice analysis Fergus! I’m sure you also find it interesting the tactic that Linda McMahon (of WWE fame) is doing in her run for Chris Dodd’s seat. It looks like she is fully willing to be a self funder, declining to take any PAC or “special interest” money. Even going so far as to say any donations from individuals will be limited to $100.
TimothyHorrigan
Sep 28, 2009
Kelly Ayotte & Ovide LaMontagne are not multimillionaires, so they can’t follow Linda McMahon’s strategy.
Where Ayotte ran into trouble was that she ran out out to Washington, DC first without establishing a base of political support back home. She was a well-known figure statewide, having been the Attorney General all those years, but no one knew where she stood on the issues— particularly the national issues. No one even really knew which party, if any, she belonged to until she filed as a Republican.
Matt Suermann
Sep 28, 2009
Timothy, I was talking about the 3 other potential candidates who could tap their bank accounts to bank roll a run.
Also, I’m pretty sure that everyone knew that Ayotte was a Republican after working on Benson’s election campaign and every newspaper report making note of her being a Republican appointed by both a Republican and Democrat Gov.