MONDAY UPDATE–Since this article was posted Friday, there have been minor changes.  The monthly shortfall is $12.3 million rather than $12.8 million.  Another $1.1 million came in for tobacco bringing the excess to $2.0 million for the month, by far our best performer.  Liquor was off another $0.8 million due to new percentages for costing, bringing that total to $2.4 million off for the month.  Real estate transfer slipped $0.6 million (a last day payment to the LCHIP fund) leaving that total at $7.4 million or $0.9 million ahead of plan.  Another $0.3 million came in for business taxes leading to an excess of $1.5 million for the month.

On top of the $110 million lost to the state in yesterday’s Supreme Court decision, expect more bad news when January revenues are reported Monday.

Depending on how you count the $8.8 million securities revenue which was expected in January but came through on December 31, January revenues are expected to be down either $12.8 million (10.6 percent) or $4.0 million (3.3 percent).   A few dribs and drabs might come in over the weekend, but fear is that business refunds might take the numbers down rather than up.

Since we all knew the securities monies could not be counted twice, the $8.8 million shortfall in January was expected, so perhaps it’s best simply to look at year to date revenues.

With the $108.3 million from January (traditionally a low month for revenues), the total for the year is now $962.3 million, $40.7 million shy of the 1003.0 million expected at the end of seven months.

The $40.7 million represents a 4.1 percent shortfall.  If that we to be extrapolated to the entire year (4.1 times 2259.1), we would be $92.6 million shy for the year (not counting the Fish and Game and Highway Funds).

If we back out $363 million in statewide property taxes (which comes in in March), the number for the year would be 1891.1 million ($1,891,000,000 or 1.891 billion).  Multiply that times 4.1, and the shortfall is “only” $77.7 million, still more than twice what Department of Administrative Service Director Linda Hodgdon told the Senate we’d be short just two weeks ago.

Meals and rooms continues to be the worst performer for the year, down another $1.8 million (9.5 percent) for January, now $14.6 million off for the year.  However, when Hodgdon appeared before the Senate, she said rooms and meals would only be off $10.7 million for the entire year.  In other words, at a time when we continue to fall nearly $2 million shy a month, we’d actually have to be $3.9 million ahead to meet Hodgdon’s pie in the sky numbers.

Clearly, as part of his state of the state address, Governor John Lynch should have announced that he is replacing Commissioner Hodgdon with someone more qualified to look at numbers.  

She says we’ll get $240.4 million in rooms and meals revenue, but for seven months we’re down 9.2 percent, and at the rate we’re going, we’ll get only $228 million.  If we continue down 9.2 percent (and there’s no reason to believe we won’t), we will be off $23.1 million for the year (9.2 times $251.1 million) in that one category alone.

Even when she had the chance to revise bad numbers, Commissioner Hodgdon failed to prudently do so in here January 15 documentary package to Governor Lynch, Senate President Sylvia Larsen and House Speaker Terie Norelli.

There was some good news in January.  Real estate transfer taxes were up $1.5 million for the month, $8.0 million vs. $6.5 million for the year.  Thus, we’re only off $1 million for the year in that category.

Tobacco taxes also came in ahead of schedule again, $0.9 million ahead of the expected $16.2 million.  We’re $6.0 million ahead of schedule for the year, fueling speculation that Lynch and Democratic leaders will ask for yet another increase in that tax before the House and Senate adjourn in June.

January is not a big month for business taxes, and depending on weekend returns, they are about a million ahead of plans for the month, leaving us $7 million shy for the year.  Not until March and April will we get meaningful numbers there.

Interest and dividends taxes continue way off schedule, down another $1.2 million for the month ($14.7 million vs. $15.9 million expected), bring the annual shortfall to $9.9 million.  We’ll undoubtedly take a big hit there in April when $40. 8 million is expected in.

Liquor was off about $1.5 million for January but is still about a million ahead of schedule for the year, but that’s not the case with lottery monies, down another $1.2 million for the month and $3.6 million for the year.

The communications tax, a stable source in years gone by, was off another $1.0 million in January and is now inexplicably off $5.4 million for the year.