40 Seat Republican Gain in NH House Is Too Low

PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS, I SHARED THIS INFORMATION WITH REPUBLICAN INSIDERS AND PROMISED TO POST IT HERE EVENTUALLY.  IN INCREASING THESE PROJECTIONS TO A 50 SEAT GAIN, I REALIZE I NEVER POSTED IT HERE TO BEGIN WITH.    The back-up data remains much the same.  The Rasmussen data has actually ticked up to nine points for the generic ballot and back down to seven, but the salient point is that it has remained in that range.  Democrats continue to slip in party identification (although Indepedents are getting the gain).  Before I enumerate the new gains, I thought I should share the old analysis with y’all.

Another reason this came to mind–I spoke with Manchester Ward 9 School Board member Arthur Beaudry last week and got the indication that he’s ready to run (not as a Dem, maybe as an Und, but I suggested as a Rep); that would mean a sure loss by Sullivan Flurey(or Pilotte) in that district.  They’ve both voted for three dozen tax and fee increases which won’t play well in working class Ward 9.

December 24, 2009

Top of the Ticket Matters–As always, top of the ticket matters a great deal.  When I predicted Democrats would take over the NH House in 2006, I based it on an expected Lynch sweep, something in the 60 percent range.  When he ended up with more than 70 percent, even my numbers proved low, and Dems picked up 78 seats.

When I predicted substantial Republican gains in 2008, it was based on top of ticket neutrality.  In fact, with the economic meltdown and John McCain’s meltdown, there was no neutrality, and Dems only lost 16 seats for a 224-176 advantage.

Rasmussen’s Generic Ballot (see attachment A)--My favorite sentiment gauge is Rasmussen’s generic ballot indicator.  He asks likely voters whom they would choose in a match-up of unknown Republicans vs. Democrats for Congress.  This poll tends to favor Republicans more since Rasmussen uses likely voters and doesn’t place the question near the end of lengthy surveys like other pollsters do.  At the time of the 2008 election, Dems held a seven point lead in this category.  Republicans have been ahead for the past six months, solidly ahead for the two months, and currently lead by eight points (44-36).  Since New Hampshire is in sync with nationwide trends, the seven point lead could be extrapolated for NH, and it would be a tremendous GOP advantage.  (The Real Clear Politics average is a two point GOP lead, but editors of that survey acknowledge that Rasmussen is probably the most accurate judge right now).

Rasmussen’s Party Identification (see attachment B)–The number of people identifying themselves as Democrats is down significantly; in fact it’s at a four year low.  Dems held a 41.4-33.8 lead in November, 2008 (+7.6 points).  A month ago, it was 37.8-32.0 (+5.8).  Today, it’s only 36.0-33.1 (+2.9).  If this trend continues, all bets are off…Dems could suffer the kind of losses Republicans did in 2006, but I’m not predicting that…yet.

The Lynch Factor–In a very real sense, expect Democrats to hold more seats the greater the percentage Lynch gets at the top.  I expect he will win re-election and am basing these numbers on holding him to something in the 55 percent range.  If he hits 65 or 70 percent again, all bets are off, and Dems will most likely retain control.  If for some reason, Lynch should lose (or win by a whisker) and Republicans enjoy a big top of the ticket advantage, these numbers could prove low.

Downplaying (sadly) the Individual—It pains me to say it since I’ve long been an advocate of individuals making a real difference.  However, since it’s virtually impossible to keep tabs on 400 (or 800) individuals, my analysis has never stressed that factor, and the personal touch generally comes into play only in close races or marginal districts (perhaps the final seat in a multi-member district).  If I know of incumbents not running (or of potentially strong new candidates), I try to use that information, so any input is always welcome.

Best current guess is a Republican 40 seat gain for control of the NH House 216-184

A starting point of 224-176 is used (November, 2008 election results).  For the sake of consistency, vacancies or special elections are not taken into account here.

Here are the top 40 chances for gains, alphabetically and numerically by county.

Belknap 3–+1—Meredith, currently 1-1.  Dems only picked up a seat here because Republicans couldn’t field a real candidate.  It won’t take a very good candidate to score a gain here, just a warm body.

Belknap 4–+1—Laconia.  Dems currently lead 3-2.  The 5^th place Dem beat the 6^th place Rep by only 32 votes for the final seat.  Good candidates could mean a pickup of two here, especially if the tide continues to turn in GOP favor.

Belknap 5–+1—Alton, Barnstead, Belmont, Gilford.  Republicans have six of seven seats in this multi-town district.  There’s no way William Johnson should hold on.  He only won by 29 votes in good Dem year (5275-5246 for 7^th place) and he’s among the most left wingers one could imagine.  He should be targeted.

Carroll County–+0—No change seen but it should be noted that the single member district (2) should be a swing district, and GOP failed to field a candidate there against Bob Bridgham last time.  You can’t win with no one.

Cheshire County+0—No change seen.  Perhaps in 2012 when Keene is split up into ward by ward voting, but the only real shot here would be if Bonnie Mitchell decides not to run again in District 7.  If so, Reps could sweep four seats there.  Word is that she had to be “talked into” running again last time.

Coos County 2–+1—I had this multi-town district as staying 2-2 until Scott Merrick resigned.  With him out of the field, Republicans should win three of four seats with Evalyn Merrick hanging on for Dems.  (She probably would survive even a GOP landslide year).

Coos 3–+0— In Gorham, Hatch survived re-election by 211 votes in 2008 and that would be difficult to turn around in a single member district, but as Ways and Means Vice Chair, he should be targeted for all his tax increase votes.

Coos 4–+0–There’s always an outside shot of picking up one of four seats in Berlin if Dems can’t find four reasonable candidates or if Reps could find one very popular person, but don’t count on it.

Grafton 3–+1—Lincoln, Bath area.  Currently 1-1, and Dem Ford (1671 votes while two Republicans had 1533 and 1510) actually topped the ticket, so it will take an effort to get her out, but economic downturn and new taxes should help Greg Sorg get back in here.

Grafton 6–+1—From Campton on out to Orford; Dems hold both seats and I personally like Carol Friedrich as great deal (she’s one of only a few Dems with an independent streak), but she is more likely to lose than Aguiar (he got 2051 votes while she only won 1700-1650 last time), so I’d guess she loses (sadly).

Here are two somewhat longer shots.

Grafton 8–+1—Ashland, Bristol, GOP leads 2 to 1.  In what should be natural Republican territory, Phil Preston has built a name for himself.  He’s very conscious of how his votes will affect re-election (that’s why he bucked the party and held out against gay marriage for a while).  He should have been more concerned about his votes to increase taxes.  He should be targeted; the problem is that Preston actually came in 2^nd with a Rep 3^rd, and the 4^th place finisher (and loser) in 2008 was a Dem, not a Rep, but it was close enough to put this district in play.

Grafton 10–+1—Enfield, Canaan.  Dems control all three seats, and some fear that this area has irrevocably turned, but I still believe Paul Mirski can win.  He was only down by 134 votes last time (2464-2310 for 3^rd place).   Laliberte hasn’t done much to distinguish herself, and a rising tide should help Mirski here.

Hills. 1–+1—Antrim, Hancock, Windsor.  Dems currently hold all three seats here, but the margin between 3^rd and 4^th place finishers was only 101 votes (2528-2427 with 2560 for second place finisher also in jeopardy), which means any movements at top of ticket should turn at least one seat here, possibly two if GOP finds three good candidates.

Hills. 2–+1—Bennington, Deering, Francestown.   Dems hold both seats here, but the margin was only 38 votes (1683-1645) for second vs. third.  Like in Dist. 1, a surge at the top and good candidates could produce a two seat gain here (number one Dem had 1738 votes and number four Rep 1491).

Hills. 4—+0—Mt. Vernon, New Boston.  GOP holds three of four seats and it would probably take a tsunami to unseat Deputy Speaker Linda Foster (3868 votes in finishing 2^nd last time while 5^th place Republican had 3530).  If Foster loses, expect GOP to pick up not 40 seats, but 60 or more!  It could happen, but isn’t currently foreseen.

Hills 5–+1—Brookline, Hollis, Mason.  Solid Republican territory (three of the four seats) but Lynch has carried Melanie Levesque in the last two times.  She beat the fifth place Republican by 129 votes (3897-3768), and probably can’t win without help up top.

Hills. 6–+1—More solid Republican territory, Amherst, Milford with GOP holding 7 of 8 seats.  However, Dem Shannon Chandley finished 7^th rather than 8^th and there was quite a gap between her and the winning Republican in 8^th and loser in 9^th (5612-5199-4814).  That’s 800 votes to make up, so shorter coattails (and a good solid 8 GOP candidates) will be needed here, but Chandley has voted for all the tax and fee increases which could be used against her.

Hills 7–+1—Goffstown, Weare.  Republicans hold seven of eight seats and should take them all.  Dem Hodges finished 7^th with 5040 votes while losing Republican had 4836.  Even a slight tilt should push Hodges (a Dem lackey) out.

Manchester, Hills. Districts 8-17–+8—Dems currently hold 28 of the 35 seats, and it’s especially tough to tell how wide a pick-up we’ll see.  This merits its own study (which I’ll have later), but in its simplest form, let’s say Republicans pick up a single seat in 8 of the 12 wards (in all except Wards 3 and 5 which are very Democratic; Ward 6 in which Republicans already have two seats and Ben Baroody is probably unbeatable; and Ward 9 which has three popular incumbent Dems).  That would still leave Dems with 20-15 control of delegation.  If three Manchester candidates (John Stephen for Governor, Ovide Lamontagne for Senate, and Frank Guinta for Congress) are on the ballot, the eight seat pick-up could be conservative.

Ward 3—While  Joe Kelly Levasseur has lost one-on-one elections in the past, he conceivably could win in a Democratic ward (three) when voters get to chose three Reps.

Ward 8—In an extremely strong year, it’s possible three good Republicans could sweep ward eight (home of Kathy Sullivan, Ray Buckley, Betsi DeVries and me), which has not seen a sweep for either party in 20 years.  (Buckley survived in 1994 by being on both sides of the ballot!  That won’t happen again!)  Outside of Laconia (Wards 1 and 6), Ward 8 Manchester was the only city ward in the entire state to go for both McCain and Sununu in 2008.  Also, incumbent Farley has a pathetic 24 percent attendance record.

Ward 9—A  strong Republican candidate could come forward (either disenchanted Dem School Board member Arthur Beaudry switching parties to defeat Flurey whom he just defeated for school board or maybe former Ald. Mike Garrity who just lost to Rep Shaw).

Wards 10, 11, and 12—This scenario projects the three west side wards (Dist. 17) going from 6-2 Dems to 5-3 Republicans (Dems Beaulieu and Nixon and Republicans Messier and Soucy should be safe with the other four seats in play).

Hills. 19–+1—Merrimack.  Republicans hold seven of the eight seats.  Dem O’Neil finished 7^th, only 80 votes ahead of 9^th place Republican (6106-6025 with Republican Nancy Elliott in 8^th at 6047).  A nudge at top will turn this district solidly Republican.

Nashua—Hills Dists. 20-26–+3—Dems currently hold 23 of 28 seats, and many of these wards are automatic Dem wins.  Republicans best chances are in ward 2 (dist. 21) and in the 10-member district 26 (wards 5, 8, and 9) where Dem advantage could be reduced from 8-2 to 6-4 or maybe even 5-5.  Others with more expertise than I have will need to help out with Nashua.

Hills. 27–+2—Hudson, Litchfield, and Pelham.  Perhaps the single most interesting district in the state, currently 10-3 for GOP.  Valerie Hardy’s 2008 win was a fluke (she won due to Lynch coattails and the fact that she has same last name as Republican county sheriff), and the margin was only 22 votes, 7183-7166.  The two Dems are husband and wife Knowles.  Mary Ann (5^th in 2008 with 8401 votes compared to 10,366 for ticket topper Lynn Ober) should hold on, but John should fall (10^th in 2008 with 7686 votes, some 500 more than the 14^th place Republican and 600 more than the 15^th place Republican).  In such a large district, that could be made up if Lynch is held in the 55 percent range.  If both Knowles win, GOP gains could be held to 20 statewide.  If both lose, the gain could be 60 statewide.  This is truly the canary in a coal mine district.

Merr. 1–+1—Franklin.  Top four finishers (D-R-R-R) were within 72 votes in the race for three seats.  Although Dem Webb topped the ticket, momentum should move him into 4^th place and give Republicans all three seats.

Merr. 8–+1—Allenstown, Epsom, Pittsfield.  Dems hold three of four seats but the 4^th place Dem was only nine votes ahead of the losing 5^th place Republican, so a 2-2 split is probable and if Charlie Yeaton decides to retire, Republicans conceivably could take three of four seats.

Merr. 11–+0–Republicans hold one of the five seats in this Concord district, but that’s from the special election.  Projection is that Dems regain the seat but it doesn’t count as a loss here due to our 2008 results starting point.

Merr. 13–+1—Bow, Dunbarton.  Dems hold two of three seats, but 3^rd place Walz was only 55 votes ahead of 4^th place Republican Tom Keane who should oust Walz this time.  DeStefano (not your typical Democrat) and Anderson are unbeatable should.

Rock 1–+1—Candia, Deerfield, Northwood, Nottingham.  After Dems broke through here in 2006, Republicans came back to win three of five seats in 2008.  It’s possible that all five could go Republican this year, but to be conservative, let’s call it a pick-up of one with Dems holding on to one seat.  Nord finished 5^th,  only 102 votes ahead of 7^th place Republican (4104-3902) with Dem Snow in 6^th at 3957.  Lynch won’t have long enough coattails to carry the ultra left wingers this time around (Although he’ll never admit it publicly, Lynch might be glad to be rid of them).

Rock 4–+1—Salem, Windham, 13 members, all but one Republican.  Democrat Weber finished 13^th, only 152 votes ahead of Melinda Garcia (who won later special election).  In a 13 member district, 152 is almost a sure thing to make up without Obama at the top and with Lynch not likely to hit 70 percent again.  A sweep here is likely.

Rock 5–+2—Derry.  Republicans hold 9 of the 11 seats, and while Derry is less Republican than it once was, those shorn coattails should guarantee a pick up of at least one of the seats and with the right primary winners (I know one of the newcomers personally), both should return to the fold.  Remember, in a district this large, a little shift at the top will be felt a great deal in State Rep selections, and the shift at the top of the ticket should be substantial.

Rock 8–+1—Hampstead, Kingston, Plaistow, solid Republican territory where Norm Major cost Republicans one of the seven seats by asking for bullets and providing 7^th place Dem Lyons a 29 vote margin over 8^th place Ken Weyler (4910-4881). The lesson—run as a team; never ask for bullets.  Hear that Norm!

Rock 11–+1—Two seats, split one and one in East Kingston and Newton, but Dem Casey (on Finance Committee and thus culpable for new taxes and fees) finished only 24 votes ahead of 4^th place Republican (another Dem was 3^rd, 23 votes behind Casey).  Top of the ticket again should make up the difference here.

Rock. 13– -1—Eight seats in Exeter, N. Hampton, Stratham.  Dems lead 5-3 but with word that Doug and Stella Scamman (1^st and 3^rd) are not running again, expect a loss of a seat here.  It could be two seats, but Lee Quandt will probably salvage one of them.  Tough to see another Republican winning in an increasingly problematic area.

Rock 15–+1—Four seats in Hampton Falls, S. Hampton, Seabrook, Kensington.  Republicans placed one-two-three.  The 4^th place Dem Mark Preston (absent 77 percent of the time in 2009) was only 163 votes ahead of 5^th place Republican.  GOP should take all four seats here.

Strafford 1–+1—Rochester.  Dems hold six of the nine seats, but it was eight of nine after 2006, and Republicans actually led 5-4 prior to that, so anything is possible here.  The difference between 9^th place winning Dem and 11^th place losing Rep was only 236 votes (5474-5238), not a lot in such a large district. With Carol Shea Porter popularity waning, Republicans should pick up at least one seat here; it could be two or three, but problem is that the bottom five finishers last time were all Republicans, and they weren’t really within striking distance.  Tough to judge.  Call it +1.

Strafford 3–+1—Six town, eight member district with Dems holding 6 of 8 seats (even worse, Republicans finished 7^th and 8^th), but Republicans finished 9^th and 10^th, so there’s some hope here. (It was 8-0 in 2006).  4^th through 12^th place finishers were separated by only 350 votes, so truly anything is possible here.  The one seat gain could be conservative; it’s really only a guess here.
 

Strafford 4-5-6–+0—Tough to see how any Republican breaks through in Dover.  All nine seats stay Dem unless a popular hard working individual Republican steps forward.

Sullivan 3–+1—Sunapee.  Democrats hold this single seat, but the margin was only 63 votes in 2008 (1019-956) and with a little effort, this will easily revert to GOP control.

Sullivan 4–+1—Although Dems hold four of the five seats in Claremont, the drop between fifth (Sandy Harris, who has lost in the past) and sixth was only 300 votes in 2008, and if there’s alienation with Dem control in any urban area, Claremont could well be the place.  The 4^th place Dem (Ray Gagnon) had only 11 votes more than Harris, so he could be vulnerable as well, making this a prime target for a gain.

Gains By County:

Belknap +3                 Hillsborough +19

Carroll +0                   Merrimack +3

Cheshire +0                Rockingham +6

Coos +1                      Strafford +2

Grafton +4                 Sullivan +2

2008 Total—224 D, 176 R    +40R= 2010 Projection—216R, 184 D