Republicans Need Tea Partiers, Not Testerman

A Rasmussen poll earlier this week, combined with a dip in generic support for Republicans, should give GOP leaders pause when it comes to assessing next year’s chances.

The message is clear.  Republicans need to get back to their roots, at least the post-Goldwater roots, and not take fiscal conservatives and social libertarians for granted.

Rasmussen posed the interesting scenario, “Suppose the tea party organized itself as a political party.  When thinking about the next election for Congress, which candidate would you vote for?”

Democrats have a big lead with 36 percent, but the Tea Party candidate comes in second with 23 percent to only 18 percent for Republicans.  Interestingly, if you add the Republican and Tea Party numbers together, you get 43 percent and a seven point lead over Dems (43-36).

That seven point number is exactly the lead Republicans had in Rasmussen’s generic ballot the last few weeks, but that has slipped to a still healthy four points this week, 43-39.

What can we learn from this?  Democrats are bumping up against an increasingly lower ceiling, but Republican success is not guaranteed.  To guarantee success next year, Republicans need to make sure they appeal to the Tea Party types. 

A third party, A Tea Party, would be a disaster for Republicans.  It would split the vote and guarantee Democratic success in 2010 and Obama’s re-election in 2012.

There is no need for this to happen.  New Hampshire Republican Chair John Sununu has suggested the party back away from social issues, which arouse the base but alienate the exact same people the party needs to become a majority party again. 

As a social Libertarian, I obviously have a vested interest in this, but the Rasmussen survey fleshes out what I already knew intuitively.  The Republican Party cannot afford to lose people like me, people who support things like medical marijuana and gay marriage. 

That leads me to the next point.  Karen Testerman would be a disaster for New Hampshire Republicans were she to win the nomination for governor.  I personally expect John Lynch to be re-elected, but should Testerman be the Republican flag bearer, I suspect Lynch would get more than two thirds of the vote–again.

Republicans need a candidate who, while unable to beat John Lynch, will be able to keep him below 60 percent, hopefully below 55 percent.  Tea Party people, a natural constituency of the fiscally somewhat conservative Lynch hold the key.  If Republicans lose them, they lose all in New Hampshire from the State House and Senate to, conceivably, the two Congressional seats and the U.S. Senate seat.

It’s not going to happen, but Republicans can’t take it for granted.  They ignore the Tea Party movement at their own peril.  For sure,  Democrats like Raybo and KathytheS  pooh-pooh the movement at their own peril, but Republicans need to do more than offer silence or platitudes–the party needs to embrace the Tea Party movement.

In other recent Rasmussen polls this week, Obama continues to run about negative ten on the favorable-unfavorable rating (39-29 today), up slightly from a week ago.

Look at Connecticut for real fun.  Senator Chris Dodd, the poster child for corruption and a friend of Raybo, trails former Republican Congressman Rob Simmons by 13 points, 48-35.  He even trails wrestling maven Linda McMahon (wife–are they still married?–of WWE honcho Vince) by six points, 44-38. 

Talk about ouch!

Harry Reid is also down double digits in Nevada.  Bye, bye, Harry and Chris.

Tiger Woods’ favorable have fallen to 38 percent, down from 56 percent a week ago and and 83 percent prior to the accident.

Talk about double ouch!  Maybe Tiger needs to talk to Chris Dodd about improving his image.  Only kidding