Rep. David Boutin Running for Gatsas’ Senate Seat, Gatsas for Mayor – Here’s How We Get them Both Elected
June 9, 2009Rep. David Boutin has filed a PAC to run for Ted Gatsas’ Senate seating (following Gatsas’ resignation when he wins the Mayoral election in November). Gatsas has announced his candidacy for Mayor and has already stated that, when elected in November, he will step down from the Senate to be fair to the people of Manchester and Senate District 16. Gatsas has been a strident supporter of individual liberty and fiscal responsibility in the Senate, and I certainly don’t want to see him go sooner that he has to. However, from a strategic standpoint of electing Republicans, when looking at our potential ability to replace him with an equally conservative vote in the Senate, the election to replace Gatsas must coincide with the Manchester City elections in November.
Allow me to elaborate. There is little doubt that Gatsas will win the Manchester Mayor’s race. Between his high name recognition, conservative record, and sizable war chest, Gatsas is the best candidate either party could put up in this contest. If Gatsas decides to wait until his victory to step down from the Senate, a special election will have to be scheduled (for sometime in the spring) to name his replacement. This will weaken the chances of Senator Gatsas’ hopeful successor, Representative David Boutin of Hooksett, of being elected. Here’s why:
A strong Democrat showing in Manchester is the only shot that Dems have of winning SD16 (just look at the Gatsas/Backus results in 2006 and 2008 here and here). With Representative Boutin’s presumably low name recognition in the Queen City, he could have a tough time competing with Democrat funding and field operation. Voters simply won’t get out and vote for a candidate that they don’t know. However, they will vote a party line when driven out by a candidate with whom they are familiar.
In a November Mayoral/State Senate election, Gatsas would serve as a strong top-of-the-ticket candidate to bring out the conservative base in Manchester. “Lazy” Republicans that don’t know Rep. Boutin will likely cast a vote for him – though they are far less likely to get out to vote for him in a spring special election. It’s a double whammy, and its the only sure fire way of the GOP holding onto both SD16 and the Mayor’s office.
FergusCullen
Jun 10, 2009
Regarding Boutin, perhaps JR is not aware of Boutin’s extensive Manchester background and deep past activity in Manchester politics. He is also a extraordinarilly hard-working candidate, based on what I observed of his effort to win a special election as state rep two years ago. He later beat out the venerable David Hess, no slouch himself, for high vote getter in ‘08. And no Republican should make the mistake of thinking the NH Dems will not go all-out to win the mayor’s race as well as any potential eventual open state sen seat, even one that leans Republican like this one. Gatsas nearly lost it in ‘06 (though he posted an impressive win in ‘08).
steve vaillancourt
Jun 10, 2009
Anybody who gets Fergie’s blessing can’t be all good…in fact, can’t be much good at all.
JR
Jun 10, 2009
That’s interesting, Fergus. I don’t know Rep. Boutin personally. Any guesses on who the Dems will put up and if they’ll go for someone with Manch name recognition?