Relating NY-23 to NH ’10
November 1, 2009Dede Scozzafava dropping out in NY-23 is a good thing that should result in Doug Hoffman’s election there on Tuesday, but it’s inaccurate to portray Hoffman’s triumph as a victory by conservatives over moderates in a battle for the heart and soul of the GOP.
This is because of how Scozzafava got nominated in the first place: Not through a primary, but rather via coronation by a small group of establishment insiders.
There’s a lesson here for NH, and it’s a cautionary tale for NRCC and NRSC-backed candidates. Nothing against Frank Guinta or Kelly Ayotte. They are good candidates with much to offer, in races in which there are other good candidates, too. That said, the national committees are fallible. They make mistakes. And NY is a reminder that in most cases, they should butt out instead of trying to pick winners and losers on behalf of the locals.
Let each candidate make his or her case. Often candidates who look strong on paper turn out to be weaker than expected when on the stump. Better to find that out early, in an open nominating process, than when it’s too late to swap nominees.
Ironically, it is the NH Dems who may have made this mistake – call it premature nomination – in the US Senate race. I’m sure that more than one Democratic strategist is questioning whether Paul Hodes was made their senate nominee too quickly.
Thom Simmons
Nov 1, 2009
The axioms that continue to be made in this situation:
1) If you say something often enough, people will believe it.
2) If that’s how we feel about it in NH (alaska, florida, iowa) then that’s how they ought to feel about it in New York.
First, Dede was not ‘coronated.’ Dede was elected *MULTIPLE* times as a member of the NYS Assembly. She was ‘coronated’ not by a few backroom kingmakers, but by ELEVEN county GOP leaders (more county leaders than exist in the entire Granite State….) The RNC endorsed her precisely because she was chosen as the Republican candidate, not because they wee imposing their ideas on NY.
Her nemesis, Hoffman, does not even live in the District, and his star power and money came from the washington-based National Organization for Marriage and out of state interests. HIS was the cornoation by the monied but clueless.
Second, the lack of a primary, especially in a special election, is *standard* in New York and doesn’t surprise New York. Even Presidential Primaries are rare in NY. Now, that may seem odd to Granite Staters, as the First-in-the-Nation Primary is an Icon of th State. But New York is not New Hampshire, and efforts to suggest the political climates are somehow equivalent are off the wall.
Mark Vincent
Nov 1, 2009
Thom, the reason Scozzafava dropped out was ostensibly the poll numbers from polls taken in the district. Are all those people “clueless” as well? And now she has endorsed the Democratic candidate so what does that tell you? She’s a Democrat. Pure and simple. It’s time for the RNC to have a little more sense than to automatically not only endorse, but heavily fund liberal Democrats disguised as Republicans. They wasted $900,000 on this turncoat. And she thanks them by working for the Democrat. Hoffman is the candidate of grass roots conservatives in the district and was endorsed by George Pataki who I think knows a little bit about NY-23.
Fergus – “moderate” usually means “liberal”. This is indeed a victory for conservatives. One I believe you will see repeated all over the country next year.