New Union Leader Column – Independents’ Day?
August 7, 2009My latest editorial page column is in today’s Union Leader. In it I talk about how it is possible that NH could elect an independent to major office, as Maine, Vermont, and Connecticut have all done in the last decade. (Keep in mind there’s a difference between hoping for an outcome and predicting it. eg, I’m not hoping the Red Sox end the John Schmoltz experiment, I’m predicting they will.)
Here’s the lede: A Gallup poll out this week shows that 50 percent of New Hampshire residents identify themselves as independents, tying New Hampshire with Rhode Island for the highest percentage of independents in the nation. It’s only a matter of time before some opportunistic New Hampshire politician sees the rise of the independent, like David Ortiz looks at a hanging curveball: a dangling invitation to swing for the center field fence. Running as an independent might hold special appeal for a Katrina Swett, Kelly Ayotte, John Lynch, Bruce Keough, Fred Bramante or a wildcard like Fred Tausch.
steve vaillancourt
Aug 7, 2009
Apparently Tony Difruscia was so stricken by the colunmn that he announced he’ll run as an Ind in 2010. I responded to him saying that he’s just digging his own grave. Fergie is absolutely wrong! Many of us thought the demise of straight ticket voting would lead to Inds having a chance but we noted in doing recounts that people still vote straight ticket (by taking the time to go down the column and mark every name of those in that party). Thus by running as an Ind, depending on the dist, you start with a 20 percent (or more) disadvantage, espcecially dramatic in mega-state rep districts.
Although my usual detractors will insist this is all about me, I’ll not it anyway. Sec of State Bill Garnder tells me that when I won as a Libertarian in 2000 in Ward 8, I was the only Libertarian to ever win without also being listed on either Dem and Rep Party, and it’s the only time in 12 years that I can in less than first (third out of three spots). I checked and learned that I was about 650 votes behind the Republicans running and 600 behind the Dems running (due to straight ticket voting being counted for all members of a party). We got rid of straight ticket voting, but my prediction is–it will not lead to ind success. Even though people register as Und, they basically are not.
FERGIE, YOU COULDN’T BE WRONGER IF YOU TRIED.
But, maybe you were trying, apparently you convinced Tony Dif whom most consider the biggest RINO in Concord (including me).
Steve V