Second Look at Manchester Primary Results
September 16, 2009This morning, I took a look at historic turnout for Manchester’s Mayoral elections, going back to 2001. I was struck by how steady the turnout has been. There was a huge spike in 2001, but remember that the primary was exactly one week after 9//11, and civic engagement was extremely high.
Traditionally, general election turnout has been a little less than double the primary vote. That means that nearly half of November’s voters didn’t go to the polls yesterday.
Manchester Mayoral Turnout 2001-2009
So with a little over half the vote, Ted Gatsas enjoys a big lead over Mark Roy, with a sizable portion of Bobby Stephen’s Tax Cap vote likely to come his way. But a big lead in the primary does not guarantee a General Election Victory.
We need only look back to 2005, when Bob Baines cruised to 54% of the primary vote, only to lose to Frank Guinta 51%-49% in the General.
2003 Results
Primary General
Baines 5168 53.95%
Guinta 3760 39.25%
Kassel 651 6.80%
Total 9579
General
Baines 9597 48.66%
Guinta 10125 51.34%
Total 19722
Gatsas has huge advantages in fund-raising, name recognition, the political climate, and the issue set. This is his race to win or lose. If Roy stands a chance, he needs to successfully redefine the race that way that Guinta did around taxes, schools, and public safety in 2005.
steve vaillancourt
Sep 16, 2009
See where the Union Leader ran the story today. Below the fold, indicating it’s no big deal. Even Dan Brown’s new book got much bigger play. When the media basically ignores an election, no wonder turnout is not higher. Old timers tell me that in days gone by, the Union Leader would focus on the election every day. Even as late as 1997 when I first ran for Manchester city office, there was space devoted to candidates’ press releases every day. No more. Which came first: the lack of interest or the lack of coverage?
I was slightly surprised that turnout wasn’t a bit higher with so many mailings from Stephen, but apparently nothing short of a catastrophe will drive primary turnout higher.