Income Tax Vote Could Cost Democrats Two Dozen More Seats

They failed.

Two years ago, Democratic leadership managed to table a similar bill thus leaving no fingerprints for voters.  There are fingerprints all over yesterday’s 244-72 defeat of the bill.  70 of those who voted for the income tax were Democrats including two dozen or so from districts which Republicans could pick up later this year.

But it’s worse than that. 

Far worse.

These were such true believers in increased tax and spending that they voted for an admittedly bad version of an income tax bill at a time Democrat Ways and Means Chair Susan Almy, long-time income tax supporter from Lebanon, admitted was the worst time possible to vote for such a bill, in the middle of a recession.

Imagine having to run for re-election having not merely voted for an income tax but for one which even your own party leaders were saying was a bad, bad idea.

How bad was it?  Almy was the only Democrat to speak against it (as Chair of Ways and Means, she really had to defend her committee), but among others voting against it were Finance Chair Marjorie Smith of Durham, Majority Leader Mary Jane Wallner of Concord, and almost every Chair and Vice Chair.

Considering where they live, Smith and Wallner both could most likely survive a pro income tax vote, (should they choose to run again), but they realized it was not a good deal for New Hampshire, at least not now.  In fact, a quick scan of the roll call reveals that only three committee chairs voted for the bill, Mary Cooney (Municipal Government) from “safe” Plymouth; Judith Spang (Resources) from “safe” Durham; and Tara Sad (Environment) from less “safe” Walpole.

Many Democrats, including one sitting next to me as I type this (no names, please), say that while they in fact support an income tax, they are not about to vote for a bad one or to be hung out when their leadership, including Governor John Lynch, would never allow it to pass.

Thus, in a sense, you have to admire the 70 who had the courage to vote in line with their super leftist convictions, but in another sense, you have to wonder about the wisdom of being such an ideologue as to stand up for a bad bill at a bad time.

Perhaps most endangered is William Johnson, of Gilford, one of only two Ways and Means members to vote for the bill.  He barely won in 2008 and is clearly targeted by Republicans who think they can claim all the seats in his multi-town Belknap County district.

Equally as vulnerable is Suzi Nord from Rockingham District 1.  After barely winning in 2008, she voted for the bad income tax on the same day she was forced to take to the House floor to apologize for intemperate remarks she had made the previous week about her Commerce Committee colleagues.  The target on Rep. Nord’s back grows.

Not only voting for the bill but speaking passionately for it was Chris Hamm from Hopkinton, Stretch Kennedy’s district.

In Paul Mirski’s Grafton district (District 10), no fewer than three Democrats voted for this bad income tax bill:  Catherine Mulholland, Suzanne Laliberte, and Charles Townsend. 

Welcome back Paul Mirski!

In the conservative Grafton area of Ashland, Holderness, and Bristol, Phil Preston will have a lot of questions to answer after voting for a bill that his own leadership told him was a bad deal for New Hampshire.

Carol Friedrich, already in trouble in the Campton-Wentworth area, voted for the bill.  She shares a district with Jim Aguiar who also voted for the bill.   (I consider them both friends, and if that were criteria, I would be sad to see either of them lose, but then some people would say I have no friends!)

Hillsborough County Democrats who may well have placed themselves in final jeopardy by voting for this bad bill include:  Maurice Pilotte from Manchester’s working class Ward 9; Claudia Chase, a winner by the narrowest of margins last time, from Francestown; Cationa Beck, from Bennington; Ron Mack, the other Ways and Means Committee member (so he certainly knew what a bad bill this was) from Hancock; and Jill Hammond, a Peterborough Democrat who not only broke with fellow Peterborough Dem (and committee chair) Ann Marie Irwin to support the bill but she also spoke with special conviction for it. 

From Merrimack County, Deb Wheeler, the Northfield Dem who defied her party and governor to vote against the budget last spring, said yes to the income tax as did Joy Tilton, also from Northfield.  From that same district, Priscilla Lockwood, a Republican who usually supports an income tax, said no to this version.

The only two Republicans to vote for the bill were Irene Messier from Manchester (I’ve always supported it in the past and am not going to change now, she explained) and Ken Gould from Derry.  The usual dozen or so so-called Main Street Republicans who have voiced support for an income tax in the past would not go to bat for this one.

The list goes on, but truth be told, the majority of Democrats voting for this bill against their party’s (and their governor’s) wishes are from “safe” districts, places like Keene (Chuck Weed was the fourth Democrat to speak in favor of the bill), Portsmouth, and Durham.  They’re not worth detailing here except to say that when their ultra left wing base returns them come November, they may be in an even more severe minority thanks to yesterday’s vote.

No wonder Democrat leadership worked so hard to get no record of support for the bill two years ago.  Osborne, who has already decided not to seek re-election, tried to avoid recording of the vote yesterday (by calling for a simple division of the question) but Republicans insisted on a roll call vote.

“Powerful” Democrats are already rumored to being joining Osborne in hanging it up. 
Chair Smith refused to comment when I asked her about the rumor, and Deputy Speaker Linda Foster, Mt. Vernon, told me last week she was just trying to get through the day.  While another Democrat would most likely win Smith’s Durham seat, Foster could well be replaced by a Republican.

A veteran Democratic lawmaker (maybe he’ll out himself in a comment below this article) told me my prediction of 215 Republican members next year was too conservative.  He also said he expects Democrats to lose no less than four of their Senate seats and trail 14-10 in that body.  Imagine how fast Democratic senators would run from a bill like Osborne’s income tax effort.  Fortunately for them, it won’t get to them.

My first of the year prediction had Republicans picking up no seats in Cheshire County.  Another veteran Democrat tells me he expects his party to lose two or three seats there.

215-185 is looking way too conservative, especially after yesterday.