GOP Generic Ballot Lead Up To Nine Points; Dems Attack The Messenger

Three new Rasmussen polls early in the new year are such bad news for Democrats that left wing bloggers have begun an age-old tactic, attack the messenger.  Rasmussen, who was among the first to catch signs of the Democratic tide in 2006 and who nailed the 2008 presidential result almost exactly, is now being blasted by Democrats who all of a sudden don’t like his numbers.

This comic relief is too good to be true.  As if the Rasmussen numbers aren’t bad enough, the denial by Democrats is simply precious.

Let’s begin with the usual caveat that, because he tends to screen for only likely voters rather than all adults, Rasmussen polls tend to tip slightly more in favor of Republicans than most others, but a look at a history of results tells us we can trust Rasmussen (as opposed to Zogby whom I used to respect but had a bad cycle in 2008).

In data released Tuesday, Republican lead in the generic ballot shot up to nine points, 44 to35.  A week ago it was five points after being at seven points for  a while.

Rasmussen explains, “While the Republican lead has reached a new high, it should be noted that support for GOP candidates rose just one point over the past week while support for Democrats dropped four points to its lowest level in years.”

At the time of the Obama election in 2008, Democrats held a seven point lead in the generic ballot.

As if this news isn’t good enough, a Rasmussen analysis of how voters identity themselves was perhaps even better news Sunday.  The Democratic advantage is at its lowest point in seven years of monthly tracking.  It’s only 1.5 percent.  35.5 percent identify themselves as Democrats, 34.0 percent as Republicans, and 30.6 percent as undeclared voters.

Democratic identification is down six points from the 41.5 level at the time of the 2008 Presidential election, and the fall is continuing.  It was 37.8 in October of 2009 and 36.0 percent in December.  For this survey only, Rasmussen uses ALL voters, not just likely voters, and 15,000 adults are included in the survey each month.

The Democratic advantage is basically back to where it was in 2004 when George Bush was re-elected.

One more bit of good news.  With two weeks to go before Massachusetts voters pick a new senator, the unheard of is now possible.  Republican Scott Brown has pulled to within nine points of Democrat Martha Coakley.  It’s 50-41 percent, down from a 25 point lead a month ago.  Brown leads 65 to 21 percent with voters not affiliated with either party.

In Massachusetts, according the Rasmussen, the health care plan is supported 53 to 45 percent but it is strongly supported by only 27 percent and strongly opposed by 36 percent.

Should Brown upset Coakley…well you fill in the blank.

Meanwhile, Dems continue to shoot at the messenger rather than to recalibrate the message, never a smart strategy.

Kennedy carried the Senate seat with 69 percent in 2006.