Down Goes Obama; Down Go The Dems

UPDATE–Rasmussen’s weekly generic number (my favorite barometer) just came in, and it ticked up to +7 for Republicans (44-37).  It was plus six for two weeks, so this confirms a trend.

Those old enough will remember Howard Cossell and one of his most famous sportscasting lines, “Down Goes Frazier!”

That’s all I can think of today as I review the latest polls from Rasmussen and Zogby.  Only it’s not Frazier, it’s Obama.

Down goes Obama!

Down goes Obama!

As I’ve explained in the past, Rasmussen does this strongly favor/strongly oppose breakdown (using likely voters), and it’s hit a record high of negative 15 today.  Only 27 percent strongly favor Obama while 42 percent strongly oppose.

52 percent of Democrats strongly favor Obama while 68 percent of Republicans strongly oppose, but the most troubling number of all continues to be from independent voters.  Obama trails by more than a three to one margin with this swing group, 16 to 51 percent.

Overall, Obama has slipped to 45-54 (-9) in the favor/oppose category with Rasmussen.  Last week, Zogby it as 49-51.  Any wagers on which direction that one is headed.

Rasmussen now has opposition to Obamacare 18 points higher than those who favor it (38-56).  Just a week ago, it was only 47-49.  The last time a majority favored Obamacare with Rasmussen was September 13 when it was up 51-46.  Seniors (a key voting group for Democrats) currently oppose the plan 34-60.

16 percent are convinced Obamacare will save them money while 60 percent believe it will cost them more.

But there’s even worse news for Democrats when it comes to next year’s Senate races.  Rudy Giuliani has polled ahead of New York Senator Kirsetn Gillibrand 45-43.  In a lengthy analysis by Larry Sabato (of the University of Virginia) last week, he has that seat as Leans Democrat, so all bets could be off if that one flips.

Get this.  Zogby has North Dakota Republican Governor John Hoeven ahead of incumbent Byron Dorgan by–get ready–19 points, 55-36.

While Arkansas Democrat senator Blanche Lincoln is ahead of her most likely opponent by two points (41-39), Zogby has her down by 12 points (37-49( if she votes for Obamacare.

The full 9 page analysis by Sabato is available on rasmussenreports.com.

He has New Hampshire (Hodes vs. either Ayotte or Lamontagne) a toss-up.

Sabato has Chris Dodd in trouble in Connecticut along with Harry Reid in Nevada.  He rates Lincoln and Dorgan toss-ups, and there’s another chance for a Republican pick-up in Colorado with new Senator Michael Bennett only a tossup against Jane Norton.  Illinois is also a toss-up with Neil Kirk even odds to take the Obama seat.

No one thinks Republicans have a chance to take control of the Senate41 Democrat-held seats are not up this year (the number is 21 for Republicans).  Each party has 19 seats contested, and there are several “safe” Dems like Evan Bayh of Indiana.

Sabato has California Senator Barbara Boxer as avlikely Dem winner.  He has Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter as a toss-up, but if Specter wins the primary (against Joe Sestak), he would be the underdog against Pat Toomey in the fall.   (Imagine Republicans hoping Specter wins his primary!)

My guess now is that Republicans will net five seats in the Senate, but we learned in 1980, 2006, and 2008 that when a few seats fall, they all could fall, so if the economy continues to head south and we continue to hear more “Down Goes Obama”, a GOP net of eight seats would be possible, and that doesn’t even count New York.