Dissecting the UNH Obama Poll

UNH released a poll yesterday asking various questions about President Obama.  On the question of job approval, 48% of New Hampshire adults approved, and 47% disapproved.  However, it is interesting to look at how Obama is doing with various groups.

Independents- Among voters who think of themselves as Independent, Obama’s approval rating is a measley 39% with 53% disapproving.

Union status- Not surprisingly, Obama does much better among union households than non-union households, getting 56% of the former and 47% of the latter.

Age- Age was not a big predictor of Obama support.  The only exception is that he does very poorly (41%) among voters 65 and over.  Among voters younger than 65, age made little difference.

Gender- Gender, on the other hand, was a big predictor of Obama support.  Only 40% of men approve of Obama’s job, but a healthy 55% of women do.

Education- Obama is very weak among voters who did not attend college, getting only 42%.  However, among those with post-graduate work, he only gets 54%.  That group has traditionally been strongly Democratic.

Income- Most of us heard growing up that “The Democrats are for the poor, and the Republicans are for the rich.”  However, that does not play out when it comes to Obama’s levels of support.  He does roughly the same among all income brackets.  Other factors like gender, religiosity, and union status are much better predictors of whether a person would like Obama than income is.

Marital status- Marital status had practically nothing to do with whether someone likes Obama.  He does 3 points better among single people than married, within the margin of error.  Again, if you want to guess whether someone will like Obama, look at gender, religiosity, and union status and ignore income and marital status.

Religiosity- Obama is a pariah among voters who attend church at least once a week.  He gets only 34% of these voters.  Then Obama does progressively better the less people attend church.  This is nothing I would be proud of if I were Obama.  I also want to editorialize for a moment and say that I don’t think it’s healthy for a democracy to have the two political parties divided by religious intensity.

Region- Obama does better in some regions than others.  He does best in the North Country and the Connecticut Valley.  He does terribly in the Manchester area and about average everywhere else.  This is something that makes New Hampshire unique.  Typically, Democrats do better in urban areas than rural, but in New Hampshire the opposite seems to be true.  They didn’t separate out Manchester, and my guess is Obama does okay in Manchester but does horribly in the suburbs.

Congressional district- Obama does a little better in the second CD but not by much.  The numbers are 45% in the first CD and 51% in the second.  This should make Shea-Porter worry, but it should also make Republicans worry that they could have a hard time winning back the second CD.