Budget Will Pass–Lynch Lines Up Pro Gambling Dems; Expands One-On-One Lobbying Meetings

ANOTHER REDHAMPSHIRE EXCLUSIVE

There’s nothing like the Speaker’s annual ice cream social to get tongues a wagging, and that’s just what happened this noon.  Redhampshire has learned that in a separate meeting with Manchester and Nashua Democrats, Governor John Lynch, in exchange for their support of his budget, has agreed to yet another gambling study commission.

Jim Craig, who was featured here in an article saying he would vote against a budget which does not include gambling, has capitulated to the governor.  According to one of his fellow Manchester Democrats (heck, he didn’t ask to remain anonymous, so here’s his name, second term Dem Representative Nick Levasseur), Craig has been promised a spot on the new gambling study commission.  Lynch has also promised that he will remain neutral to the possibility of gambling as a future solution.

The governor drew the line when asked if he would open the door to a future income tax, according to our sources (Levasseur) inside the room.  Apparently eight or nine skeptical Manchester Democrats promised Lynch they would support the budget.  Nashua Democrats (sources here are less clear) asked for assurances that Nashua would not be hurt by the removal of revenue sharing from the budget.

That would be easy enough for Lynch to provide since both Nashua and Manchester do very well in increased school funding.  For example, while Manchester loses four million in revenue sharing ($3,955,712), it gains $6. 9 million ($6,902,385) in new school funding monies.  If anyone told you they’d take four million out of your left pocket but put an additional seven million in your right pocket…well, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that’s a deal most people would take.

The numbers are similar for Nashua.  It loses $2,426,932 in revenue sharing, but gains $3,881,164 in school funding, a net positive of approx $1.4 million.  Some cities and towns, of course, will be losers overall.  Portsmouth, for example, loses $657,164 in revenue sharing and gets no new ed funding monies.  (I have the tables for all cities and towns in both categories, but you can be sure, the last thing Dem leadership wants is for these spreadsheets to get out.  I’ll be happy to share with any Rep reading this and approaching me on the floor).

Without the pro-gambling Democrats from Manchester and Nashua, it’s difficult to see how you could put together the 20-25 Democrats who would be necessary to kill this deal.  If all 400 (399) members of the House are present (which is never the case), it would take 24 Dems to abandon the Governor for the deal to be shot down, and for every Republican in support (figure a few, maybe 5-10, the usual suspects, maybe the same ones who voted for gay marriage), another Dem would have to abandon Lynch for this thing to fail.

Look for Manchester Dem Senator Lou D’Allesandro to be left virtually alone in opposition to the budget (an income taxer here and there and a few other Dems disgrunteled for various reasons).  Fellow Manchester Dem Senator Betsi Devries may not come on board, but she probably won’t be needed.

One line sums it up.  “The Governor has been putting the fear of god in a bunch of people,” one Democratic Rep remarks even as I file this report.

Among other arguments used to get wavering Dems on board

–if this budget goes down, a 2/3 vote would be needed to bring anything back, thus effectively giving Republicans a veto.

–if this doesn’t pass by July 1, federal stimulus monies may be in jeopardy.

–a continuing resolution to keep government open beyond July 1 could cost $11 million a month.

Remember the “she” I mentioned in the Friday article along with Craig.  She just told me she is off to a private meeting with the Governor in a few minutes.  She’s currently leaning against the budget, but wanna bet in an hour she’ll be saying, “Okay I’ll vote for it.”

Another maverick Democrat, claiming to be a “no” now, tells me she’s being called in for a chat with Lynch as well.  She’ll probably swing to yes as well.  In fact, yesterday, a Democratic counter (a vice chair) told me that while they had 12 solid nos, there was a huge number of undecideds.  Apparently, they’re all getting the royal treatment, private lobbying in the corner offlice this afternoon.

“Paul’s up there now; I’m scheduled when he’s done,” I hear.

This may not even be close; they probably won’t need a single Republican.