Ayotte Leads All GOP Opponents in Internal Poll
January 26, 2010This afternoon Former NH Attorney General Kelly Ayotte’s campaign released a polling memo outlining the results of a poll of 504 “likely” Republican primary voters which was conducted January 13 and 14. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
The key finding from the poll is how the four candidates fared in the all important ballot test. According to the poll 43% of voters would vote for Ayotte, 11% for Lamontagne, 5% for Bill Binnie, and 3% for Jim Bender. The poll also finds that 37% of voters are undecided. The poll also claims that Ayotte leads amongst all regions and demographics in the state by fairly substantial margins.
One item which is sure to raise some eyebrows is how she fares with self described conservatives. She leads all other candidates by +15% amongst “very conservative” voters, +23% amongst pro life voters, and +21% amongst 2nd Amendment advocates. Unsurpisingly Ayotte is the best known candidate in the race, and also maintains a 9:1 favorable to unfavorable ratio. In comparison Lamontagne has a 2:1 favorable to unfavorable ratio.
At this early stage in the race, Ayotte and her supporters will be very happy with the results of this poll. With the results of the poll, other campaigns and the NHDP have responded to what they perceive as weaknesses in the poll.
In Jon DiStaso’s article on the memo, NH Democrats are pointing out a line from DC list maker Stu Rothenburg calling Ayotte “non-incumbent Republicans who have the mantle of the establishment.” Meanwhile Binnie’s camp is firing a shot across the bow claiming the poll is bad news for Ayotte.
“She is a former Attorney General, she has great name recognition and she has been running a high profile campaign for more than six months, yet she still has only managed to hit the 43 percent support mark,” said campaign manager Bryan Lanza.
“The fact that Ayotte has failed to gain any traction in the polls is great sign for Bill Binnie,” said Lanza. “This race is wide open.”
If anything this poll shows that the race is far from over and that there is still a whole score of voters that still need to be convinced to support one candidate or another. A lot can and will happen between now and Election Day. None the less this is a good news for Ayotte.
